How a new disease management solution has tripled HCC early detection rates

In China, a pilot project to screen 12,000 individuals at high risk of liver cancer with new tools has achieved an early-stage diagnosis rate of more than 85% — far exceeding the national rate of less than 30%.

In China, treatment for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC), or liver cancer, is advanced. Yet five- year survival rates are just 12%1 — far lower than Japan (58%)². China accounts for less than a third of Asia’s population, but according to a meta-analysis of HCC survival rates in Asian countries, sees around half of all deaths from HCC in Asia³.

The reason is late detection. HCC treatment is only effective when the carcinoma is caught early; five-year survival rates then rise to 40-70%⁴. For most patients in China, it isn’t caught early.

As a Chinese Expert Consensus Statement puts it, “because of the insufficient early warning and screening for HCC high‐risk population, about 70%–80% of HCC patients are diagnosed at late stage, resulting in the five‐year survival rate of HCC patients being extremely low.”

The health system urgently needs a new approach to HCC screening, enabling clinicians to identify potential carcinoma sooner. One-time tests aren’t enough; high-risk patients require multiple follow-ups.

New digital tools can give clinicians deeper insights sooner

Roche’s Liver Disease Pathway (LDP) Digital Disease Management solution is designed to meet this need. It gives clinicians an end-to-end system designed to manage the whole continuum of care for high-risk patients, ensuring continuous follow-up.

The platform integrates three core elements:

1. Diagnostic tools: Utilising a combination of advanced blood tests and imaging (ultrasound).
2. Predictive risk stratification: Integration of the GAAD algorithm (Gender, Age, AFP,and Des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (PIVKA-II), and other automated risk stratification models (aMAP,mPAGE-B, REACH-B, CAMD,etc.) for accurate, risk-based stratification of patients.
3. Digital patient management: The digital platform connects patients, tests, and clinicians, providing the data for personalised management, timely recalls, and early intervention.

In a pilot project in collaboration with district government and regional hospitals, Roche has helped to embed the LDP in care pathways in Shanghai’s Jia Ding district, targeting the high-risk population for HCC.

The latest data, as of 30 June 2025, shows significant promise. Of 12,000 high-risk individuals screened, more than 1,200 abnormalities were found. 16 cases of liver cancer were diagnosed. 12 of 14 primary HCC cases were in the early stage, achieving an 85.7% early-stage diagnosis rate — around three times the national rate.

The pilot’s success reflects the importance of patient-inclusivity in HCC care pathways: when clinicians have the information they need to diagnose liver cancer earlier, patients can be more involved in their treatment decisions and given a wider range of treatment options.

That means greater ownership, more confidence and ultimately, improved outcomes. Patients become empowered partners in their own care. By connecting the patient journey, combining diagnostic tools with a sophisticated algorithm and digital patient management system, the pilot has made that possible.

A new standard of care for HCC screening

Now, our vision is to scale the solution beyond the pilot to establish a new standard of care for HCC screening and management across China.

It requires collaboration with all stakeholders, across government and the health system. But together, we can get there. We can make real impact for patients — catching HCC earlier, giving them more time with their families, and changing the prognosis for liver cancer across China.